Uttar Pradesh: Climate and soils

Uttar Pradesh has a predominantly sub-tropical monsoon climate, with mild, dry winters and hot summers. The UP State Action Plan on Climate Change 2.0 (2021-2030) calls it the fourth largest state by area, giving a geographical area of 243,286 km2 (the state tourism department's key facts give 2,40,928 sq km). Its analysis of 1980-2019 data shows warming temperatures and falling rainfall.

Setting and Regions

• Location: between 23° 52'N and 31° 28' N latitude and 77° 51' E and 84° 38'E longitude.
• Landlocked, bordering nine states (Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and Uttarakhand) and Nepal to the north.
• Three main regions: the Sub-mountainous region, the Ganga Plain region and the Trans-Yamuna region.

Seasons and Temperature

• Average temperature: about 12.5-17.5 °C in January and 27.5-32.5 °C in May and June; weather also varies with elevation.
• IMD meteorological seasons: Winter (January-February), Pre-monsoon (March-May), Monsoon (June-September) and Post-Monsoon (October-December).
• 1980-2019 state averages: annual average maximum 31.41°C (rising +0.0074 per year), minimum 19.27°C (rising +0.0145), and diurnal temperature range (DTR) 12.13°C (falling -0.0071).
• District records (1980-2019): highest average maximum in Lalitpur (32.74°C), lowest in Bijnor (26.75°C); highest DTR in Lalitpur (14.22°C).
• Heat waves: by NDMA, a heat wave is a maximum of 45°C or more in plains and a severe heat wave 47°C or more.
• Jhansi had the most extreme heat days (163), followed by Agra (159). Kasganj and Firozabad had the most severe heat days (8 each).

Rainfall

• Average annual rainfall (1980-2019): about 896.51mm, falling by about 6.70 mm a year.
• Wettest year: 1983 (1188.69mm); driest: 1997 (611.79mm).
• Nearly 90% of annual rainfall comes in the southwest monsoon (June-September); the 1980-2019 analysis puts the monsoon share at about 88 %.
• Monsoon (JJAS) rainfall averaged 792.33 mm, falling by 5.83 mm a year.
• Rising rainfall variability has made parts of UP prone to recurrent droughts, crop failure and rural to urban migration.
• Dry days have increased in all parts of UP, and monsoon rainy days have fallen, making almost all districts drier in 2010-2019 than in 1980-89.

District Rainfall Patterns

• Highest annual rainfall: Maharajganj, followed by Sant Kabir Nagar, Shravasti, Pilibhit and Saharanpur.
• Highest monsoon rainfall: Maharajganj (1133mm); lowest: Gautam Buddha Nagar (447mm).
• Exceptions to the falling trend in annual rainfall: Saharanpur (3.09mm), Shamli (0.08mm) and Kaushambi (1.09mm).
• Largest decrease: Kushinagar (19.836mm).
• Most dry days in the monsoon: Ghaziabad (2650); most rainy days: Rampur (2623).
• Most heavy rainfall days: Sant Kabir Nagar (94); most very heavy rainfall days: Shrawasti (12).

Climate Projections

• Based on RCP 4.5 (mid-range) and RCP 8.5 (high-end) emission scenarios, against a 1981-2010 baseline.
• Maximum temperature: likely to rise by 1.04°C and 1.24°C by 2011-2040, and up to 1.75°C and 2.60°C by 2041-2070.
• Minimum temperature: up to 0.98°C and 1.20°C by 2011-2040, and up to 2.40°C and 5.01°C by 2071-2100.
• Rainfall: projected to fall by 5.37% and 4.36% in the near-term; in the mid-term, a fall of 1.32 % under RCP 4.5 but a rise of 1.56% under RCP 8.5.

Agro-Climatic Zones and Soils

• 9 Agro-climatic Zones: Bhawar and Tarai, Western Plain, Mid-Western Plain, South-Western Semi-Arid Plains (Western sub-tropical), Central Plain, Bundelkhand zone, North-Eastern Plain zone, Eastern Plains and Vindhyan.
• Soil profile: Alluvial, Arawali, Rakar, Parwa, Kabar and Maar soils.
• 2015-16: gross cropped area 26,203 thousand ha, net sown area 16,469 thousand ha, cropping intensity 159.1%, and 80.1 percent of area under irrigation.
• Major crops: rice, wheat, maize, sugarcane, chickpea and pigeonpea.